Modeling the impact of AI on the world economy

Jacques Bughin, Jeongmin Seong, James Manyika, Michael Chui, and Raoul Joshi, Notes from the frontier: Modeling the impact of AI on the world economy, McKinsey Global Institute, September 2018.

Several barriers might hinder rapid adoption and absorption (see video, “A minute with the McKinsey Global Institute: Challenges of adopting automation technology”). For instance, late adopters might find it difficult to generate impact from AI, because front-runners have already captured AI opportunities and late adopters lag in developing capabilities and attracting talent. 

Nevertheless, at the global average level of adoption and absorption implied by our simulation, AI has the potential to deliver additional global economic activity of around $13 trillion by 2030, or about 16 percent higher cumulative GDP compared with today. This amounts to 1.2 percent additional GDP growth per year. If delivered, this impact would compare well with that of other general-purpose technologies through history.