成長於英國和畢業於牛津大學的記者，前往哈佛商學院完成 MBA學位後，寫下的書
第一個重點是個案教學法，透過一年級的十門必修課和二年級的選修課，剖析如何分析和處理不確定的商業決策 (1)。
第二個則是許多的觀察和省思，包括 (哈佛) 商學院的教育、工作和家庭、資本主義、生命的價值、大企業不為人知的面向等等。
(1) Premier Case Collection 列了 450 個最熱門的個案。
7/29/2012
7/04/2012
Marx 或 Smith 是對的？
女兒學校的國二社會科 (social studies) 期中考考題 (1)，本身是博士的美國老師出了八題，女兒選擇回答的問題是
Does what's happening in the world today seem to suggest Marx was right or Smith? (2)
根據老師上課的補充資料，女兒的 (原始) 回答如下
Marx and Smith have two different alternative views of society and government. Marx believes in that society will eventually develop into communism, while Smith believes in a capitalism society. They both are connect on some part of history. Countries such as Russia and China did become communist, but are now receding back to the right. Most countries are moving to the right in history.
Take China as an example. It is today a socialist country. The KMT used to have an industrialized republic country but the workers revolted. Next, this party rise up and ruled China as communism. Up till this point, it fits Marx's view of history. Since then, people have become rich with its own business, so this is actually Smith's view of history. Still, the Chinese government today owns quite a few businesses. China did fit Marx's view of history but have made a turning point to the right and become a socialist country. If China keeps on moving, it will arrive to a capitalist country.
A different example is England, a capitalist country. England first industrialized then became a free market country. In England "greed is good", the market decides the price of goods and who to survive. This is Smith’s view of society which is related to nature selection. In England, the workers never revolted and remains a free market up till today. England's case is naturally similar to a lot of countries such as US, Germany and France. Also a capitalist country has no government involving in it.
Lastly, a communist country is impossible while a total free market is also impossible. Marx view the final stage of communism as no government. This is impossible since people can't live equally with no government at all. Smith's view is also impossible since the government will always be involved. In America, the government bailed out the banks. That is involvement. While in almost all the countries, the government will own few large companies. A total free market and a total communism is impossible, but the world today seems to lean more over to Smith's side.
In conclusion, history have evolved both ways, but every country that has reach Marx's view of communism will eventually recede right to Smith's view. Most countries in the world today are capitalist economy will little government involvement. This is a mix of two but more emphasis of Smith's view. The justified answer is that history lies more to Smith's view compared to Marx since every communist country will eventually fall. The economy in the world today is mostly Smith's view since government usually owns a few businesses only.
(1) 課本 B.J. Armento, etc., Across the Centuries, Houghton Mifflin, 2003, 558 pages.
(2) Karl Marx (卡爾馬克思) 和 Adam Smith (亞當史密斯)
Does what's happening in the world today seem to suggest Marx was right or Smith? (2)
根據老師上課的補充資料，女兒的 (原始) 回答如下
Marx and Smith have two different alternative views of society and government. Marx believes in that society will eventually develop into communism, while Smith believes in a capitalism society. They both are connect on some part of history. Countries such as Russia and China did become communist, but are now receding back to the right. Most countries are moving to the right in history.
Take China as an example. It is today a socialist country. The KMT used to have an industrialized republic country but the workers revolted. Next, this party rise up and ruled China as communism. Up till this point, it fits Marx's view of history. Since then, people have become rich with its own business, so this is actually Smith's view of history. Still, the Chinese government today owns quite a few businesses. China did fit Marx's view of history but have made a turning point to the right and become a socialist country. If China keeps on moving, it will arrive to a capitalist country.
A different example is England, a capitalist country. England first industrialized then became a free market country. In England "greed is good", the market decides the price of goods and who to survive. This is Smith’s view of society which is related to nature selection. In England, the workers never revolted and remains a free market up till today. England's case is naturally similar to a lot of countries such as US, Germany and France. Also a capitalist country has no government involving in it.
Lastly, a communist country is impossible while a total free market is also impossible. Marx view the final stage of communism as no government. This is impossible since people can't live equally with no government at all. Smith's view is also impossible since the government will always be involved. In America, the government bailed out the banks. That is involvement. While in almost all the countries, the government will own few large companies. A total free market and a total communism is impossible, but the world today seems to lean more over to Smith's side.
In conclusion, history have evolved both ways, but every country that has reach Marx's view of communism will eventually recede right to Smith's view. Most countries in the world today are capitalist economy will little government involvement. This is a mix of two but more emphasis of Smith's view. The justified answer is that history lies more to Smith's view compared to Marx since every communist country will eventually fall. The economy in the world today is mostly Smith's view since government usually owns a few businesses only.
(1) 課本 B.J. Armento, etc., Across the Centuries, Houghton Mifflin, 2003, 558 pages.
(2) Karl Marx (卡爾馬克思) 和 Adam Smith (亞當史密斯)
6/18/2012
企業如何達成分析決策的方法：DELTA
本書 (1) 延續前一本書 Competing on Analytics，說明如何達成該目標的五個步驟，分別為
Data: The prerequisite for everthing analytical
Enterprise: Integrting across organizational silos
Leadership: The deciding DELTA factor
Targets: Picking your spots for analytics
Analysis: Managing Scarce and valuable talent
第一章根據 Competing on Analytics 中的架構，將企業使用分析能力的狀況分成五個階層，分別為
Analytically impaired
Localized analytics
Analytical aspirations
Analytical companies
Analytical competitors
附錄中的 2 頁表格針對如何進階到高一階層的工作，分別說明 DELTA 中必須準備的事項。
書的第二部份則是說明如何維持該狀態，分別為
Embed analytics in business processes
Build an analytical culture
Review your business comprehensively
Meeting challenges along the way
Toward more analytical decisions and better results
達成的關鍵？
The key challenges are no longer technological or analytical; they have more to do with simply making managers familiar with the concepts and the process. (2)
(1) T.H. Davenport, J.G. Harris, and R. Morison, Analytics at Work: Smarter Decisions, Better Results, Harvard Business Press, 2010.
(2) T.H. Davenport, How to Design Smart Business Experiment, Harvard Business Review, 2009.
Data: The prerequisite for everthing analytical
Enterprise: Integrting across organizational silos
Leadership: The deciding DELTA factor
Targets: Picking your spots for analytics
Analysis: Managing Scarce and valuable talent
第一章根據 Competing on Analytics 中的架構，將企業使用分析能力的狀況分成五個階層，分別為
Analytically impaired
Localized analytics
Analytical aspirations
Analytical companies
Analytical competitors
附錄中的 2 頁表格針對如何進階到高一階層的工作，分別說明 DELTA 中必須準備的事項。
書的第二部份則是說明如何維持該狀態，分別為
Embed analytics in business processes
Build an analytical culture
Review your business comprehensively
Meeting challenges along the way
Toward more analytical decisions and better results
達成的關鍵？
The key challenges are no longer technological or analytical; they have more to do with simply making managers familiar with the concepts and the process. (2)
(1) T.H. Davenport, J.G. Harris, and R. Morison, Analytics at Work: Smarter Decisions, Better Results, Harvard Business Press, 2010.
(2) T.H. Davenport, How to Design Smart Business Experiment, Harvard Business Review, 2009.
6/12/2012
餐廳 1010 湘的服務系統
天下雜誌報導瓦城泰統的內部餐點管理 (1)，可惜我們無從接觸；不過，其服務系統有很大的改善空間。
我們用餐的地點是新光三越西門店 (2)，四個人點四道菜，1500 元左右 (3)。
首先，其位置的安排太近，所以桌距小。不知道是不是這個因素，導致服務生從我們的左邊上菜。根據打工學生的描述，這並不是標準的作法。況且，餐桌旁的走廊一直有服務生站著，所以應該有時間從正確的位置送菜。
第一道的青菜很快就到了，但是第二道卻等很久，只好玩起假裝夾菜的遊戲。中餐要配飯，所以時間間隔很重要。正如 Bill Darden 所說的 "not everybody's a gourmet, but everybody can tell time."。解決的方法之一 (Meal Pacing) 見此 (4)。
第三道上菜時，太太正在夾菜，服務生沒有任何的表示，例如等一下或者說對不起，就直接從手的上方放下菜來。
(1) 2011-11 天下雜誌 484期，科技業寒冬 賣漢堡比賣電腦賺，『以瓦城泰統旗下餐廳為例，流程、管理已經落實到每個環節，可以快速複製、成長。辣炒牛肉的牛小排要剁多細、一道孜然排骨要透過 100 多道標準化程序，讓每位廚師都烹調出同一味。瓦城泰統董事長徐承義說，公司早期開始就詳細規範，訂定 KPI，21 年後終於可以快速複製菜色、有展店的爆發力。』
(2) 我對美食沒有研究，因此只將食物分成三等級 -- 好吃、普通、不好吃。1010 湘屬於好吃。
(3) 我們吃得少，到王品集團的陶板屋或原燒也是差不多這個金額。但是，王品集團都沒有看到這些問題。另外，根據在百貨公司設櫃的親戚說明，百貨公司會抽取 3 成營業額當管理費；王品集團則是租店，連鎖店也多；所以兩者成本不太一樣。
(4) 該文章並沒有說明其詳細的內容。不過，基本的問題是在眾多的限制下 (例如先到先服務、出菜間隔)，決定眾多訂單的順序，以最小化顧客的平均等待時間；屬於生管的多機排程問題，在製造業有許多的類似應用，學術界也有很多的討論和研究。瓦城泰統已經有流程管理，所以可以得知每一道菜的準備和料理時間；用餐的尖峰時間，廚房非常繁忙，所以應由資訊系統 (中的演算法) 來決定準備的順序與間隔。
我們用餐的地點是新光三越西門店 (2)，四個人點四道菜，1500 元左右 (3)。
首先，其位置的安排太近，所以桌距小。不知道是不是這個因素，導致服務生從我們的左邊上菜。根據打工學生的描述，這並不是標準的作法。況且，餐桌旁的走廊一直有服務生站著，所以應該有時間從正確的位置送菜。
第一道的青菜很快就到了，但是第二道卻等很久，只好玩起假裝夾菜的遊戲。中餐要配飯，所以時間間隔很重要。正如 Bill Darden 所說的 "not everybody's a gourmet, but everybody can tell time."。解決的方法之一 (Meal Pacing) 見此 (4)。
第三道上菜時，太太正在夾菜，服務生沒有任何的表示，例如等一下或者說對不起，就直接從手的上方放下菜來。
(1) 2011-11 天下雜誌 484期，科技業寒冬 賣漢堡比賣電腦賺，『以瓦城泰統旗下餐廳為例，流程、管理已經落實到每個環節，可以快速複製、成長。辣炒牛肉的牛小排要剁多細、一道孜然排骨要透過 100 多道標準化程序，讓每位廚師都烹調出同一味。瓦城泰統董事長徐承義說，公司早期開始就詳細規範，訂定 KPI，21 年後終於可以快速複製菜色、有展店的爆發力。』
(2) 我對美食沒有研究，因此只將食物分成三等級 -- 好吃、普通、不好吃。1010 湘屬於好吃。
(3) 我們吃得少，到王品集團的陶板屋或原燒也是差不多這個金額。但是，王品集團都沒有看到這些問題。另外，根據在百貨公司設櫃的親戚說明，百貨公司會抽取 3 成營業額當管理費；王品集團則是租店，連鎖店也多；所以兩者成本不太一樣。
(4) 該文章並沒有說明其詳細的內容。不過，基本的問題是在眾多的限制下 (例如先到先服務、出菜間隔)，決定眾多訂單的順序，以最小化顧客的平均等待時間；屬於生管的多機排程問題，在製造業有許多的類似應用，學術界也有很多的討論和研究。瓦城泰統已經有流程管理，所以可以得知每一道菜的準備和料理時間；用餐的尖峰時間，廚房非常繁忙，所以應由資訊系統 (中的演算法) 來決定準備的順序與間隔。
餐廳集團 Darden Restaurants 的供應鏈管理
CEO Clarence Otis, "We're very analytic"
包括 多品牌的 Darden 集團，2011 年共有 1,894 間餐廳。Fast Company 的報導中，描述其成功的一些方法。
在品牌經營上，瞭解顧客的需求，並且營造出配合該品牌主題的用餐環境。以 Olive Garden 為例
Over the past year, Darden's 22-member customer-insight team invited 16 million customers across its six chains to answer guest-satisfaction questionnaires.
The Olive Garden brand is built around the notion that guests are treated like family, but Pickens knows that isn't likely to happen unless employees feel like family too.
Pickens starts every meeting with Olive Garden senior executives by reading letters from customers and employees -- a woman's description of her celebration at Olive Garden after having survived cancer; ...
Olive Garden executives began tying everything to this mythical Italian family, adopting the tagline, "When you're here, you're family." New locations were designed to suggest Italian farmhouses, with a large family-style table, modeled on one in a Florentine trattoria. Then executives formed a partnership with actual Italians: Olive Garden's Culinary Institute of Tuscany (CIT)."
在產品開發上，朝向更健康的菜單。
Darden is in the process of altering the Red Lobster recipe -- a big risk -- to serve healthier food and improve sluggish sales.
In March, Men's Health dubbed Red Lobster "the best sit-down chain in America." When a magazine devoted to fitness sings the praises of a restaurant that has been known for all-you-can-eat fried shrimp, things are moving in the right direction.
Darden has been experimenting with what COO Madsen calls "stealth health" since it opened the first Seasons 52 in 2003. With 60 wines by the glass, entrées with no more than 475 calories, and desserts so mini they're served in shot glasses, ...
海鮮的供應問題，重視環保和加拿大政府合作孵育龍蝦
Even before scientists predicted in 2006 that world fish stocks could collapse by 2048, Darden had begun removing endangered wild fish, such as Chilean sea bass and orange roughy, from its menus and using its clout as one of the world's largest buyers to push the industry toward sustainability. To promote fish farming and to set standards to minimize its environmental impact, Darden cofounded the Global Aquaculture Alliance, a nonprofit trade association that partners with governments and NGOs.
The North American lobster harvest fluctuates every year, but demand continues to grow. So two years ago, Darden began sponsoring an experiment to boost the population. Scientists working with the government of New Brunswick, in Canada, catch pregnant lobsters and care for their offspring until they're mature enough to burrow into the ocean's sandy bottom, then release the tiny animals into the wild. Then Darden waits and hopes -- for six years or more.
還有集中採購，和數字化的管理
These days, Roger Bing, vice president of seafood purchasing, and his team travel the globe buying seafood -- again without brokers -- in more than 32 countries, often contracting with fish farms for set yield at a set price.
It is studying Wal-Mart to "understand the components of cost" with its vendors and become a better and more informed negotiator, says senior vice president Barry Moullet, whose group purchases $2.4 billion of goods a year from 1,500 suppliers. It's hedging wheat purchases, much the way airlines purchase fuel. An automated ordering system will eventually replenish a restaurant based on electronic-tagged inventory and guest-traffic forecasts.
在顧客的需求預測上，使用自家研發的軟體 Guest Forecasting 以精準預估，可以降低人力和食物成本
Patti Reilly White, 53, chief information officer, leads the 170-person team at Darden that introduces order and predictability to this volatile business.
On a Thursday night in April, Erin Harvell, the culinary manager at the Olive Garden in Wayne, New Jersey, reviews the week's forecasts in a tiny office off the kitchen. They're within 1% to 4% of the actual turnout. The biggest gap -- 630 guests instead of 660 -- was on a rainy night. Guest Forecasting spells out the appropriate staffing and food preparation -- how many fettuccine Alfredo orders to expect, how much sauce to make in the morning. Over the past two years, Darden has reduced unplanned hours by more than 40% and trimmed excess food costs by 10%.
由於大部份的餐廳不接受訂位 (1)，所以分享該地區的餐廳資訊，以便告知排隊的顧客到其他分店用餐
This summer, she's launching another project to share wait times across restaurants so that a hostess can steer customers to nearby Darden establishments that aren't as busy. The next logical step, White says, would be to give customers online access to that information.
在美國，通常是點個人套餐，然後幾乎一起出菜 (2)。在內部流程管理上，採用 Meal Pacing 以達到此目標
In the kitchen, cooks are hustling, directed by a program called Meal Pacing that White's team introduced across the company two years ago. Traditionally, an expediter would try to ensure that meals for a given table were ready at the same time so the shrimp entrée didn't sit at the window getting cold while the 14-ounce steak was still on the grill. Meal Pacing displays the optimal work flow for each party on eight screens in the kitchen and monitors each station's progress, with color-coded warnings when one falls behind. The screens also show if the staff is meeting Darden's one-minute rule: Food should arrive at the table within one minute of being ready.
也使用數字管理食材
Leftover ingredients are refrigerated in day-stamped plastic bags, and anyone using an outdated item is fired on the spot.
在 CEO 的主導下，子集團間相互學習，以達成綜效
Now Otis is pushing a new tactic: no-holds-barred sharing of information between brands.
On a Tuesday morning in April, the presidents of three of the largest restaurant chains in the country slip into an unmarked white van in Orlando, Florida, and embark on an unprecedented mission -- sharing their latest trade secrets.
At the last stop on the morning tour, the presidents of Olive Garden, Red Lobster, and LongHorn do what you expect restaurant executives to do: chow down. Over steaks and salads at LongHorn, they talk shop at a back table in the dining room, dissecting things customers don't notice. Red Lobster's faux-wood floor tile, which lasts longer than real wood and is less slippery. Olive Garden's stone exterior, which requires less upkeep than painted wood. LongHorn's layout of food-prep and storage spaces, a small improvement that saves valuable time.
(1) 接受訂位的優點很多，但是文章中卻沒有說明不接受訂位的原因。
(2) 根據台灣的用餐經驗，點個人套餐時，常常發生其中幾個人已經吃完，卻還是有人的餐點還沒有到。點中式合菜，前一道菜已經吃完，下一道菜卻等很久。
包括 多品牌的 Darden 集團，2011 年共有 1,894 間餐廳。Fast Company 的報導中，描述其成功的一些方法。
在品牌經營上，瞭解顧客的需求，並且營造出配合該品牌主題的用餐環境。以 Olive Garden 為例
Over the past year, Darden's 22-member customer-insight team invited 16 million customers across its six chains to answer guest-satisfaction questionnaires.
The Olive Garden brand is built around the notion that guests are treated like family, but Pickens knows that isn't likely to happen unless employees feel like family too.
Pickens starts every meeting with Olive Garden senior executives by reading letters from customers and employees -- a woman's description of her celebration at Olive Garden after having survived cancer; ...
Olive Garden executives began tying everything to this mythical Italian family, adopting the tagline, "When you're here, you're family." New locations were designed to suggest Italian farmhouses, with a large family-style table, modeled on one in a Florentine trattoria. Then executives formed a partnership with actual Italians: Olive Garden's Culinary Institute of Tuscany (CIT)."
在產品開發上，朝向更健康的菜單。
Darden is in the process of altering the Red Lobster recipe -- a big risk -- to serve healthier food and improve sluggish sales.
In March, Men's Health dubbed Red Lobster "the best sit-down chain in America." When a magazine devoted to fitness sings the praises of a restaurant that has been known for all-you-can-eat fried shrimp, things are moving in the right direction.
Darden has been experimenting with what COO Madsen calls "stealth health" since it opened the first Seasons 52 in 2003. With 60 wines by the glass, entrées with no more than 475 calories, and desserts so mini they're served in shot glasses, ...
海鮮的供應問題，重視環保和加拿大政府合作孵育龍蝦
Even before scientists predicted in 2006 that world fish stocks could collapse by 2048, Darden had begun removing endangered wild fish, such as Chilean sea bass and orange roughy, from its menus and using its clout as one of the world's largest buyers to push the industry toward sustainability. To promote fish farming and to set standards to minimize its environmental impact, Darden cofounded the Global Aquaculture Alliance, a nonprofit trade association that partners with governments and NGOs.
The North American lobster harvest fluctuates every year, but demand continues to grow. So two years ago, Darden began sponsoring an experiment to boost the population. Scientists working with the government of New Brunswick, in Canada, catch pregnant lobsters and care for their offspring until they're mature enough to burrow into the ocean's sandy bottom, then release the tiny animals into the wild. Then Darden waits and hopes -- for six years or more.
還有集中採購，和數字化的管理
These days, Roger Bing, vice president of seafood purchasing, and his team travel the globe buying seafood -- again without brokers -- in more than 32 countries, often contracting with fish farms for set yield at a set price.
It is studying Wal-Mart to "understand the components of cost" with its vendors and become a better and more informed negotiator, says senior vice president Barry Moullet, whose group purchases $2.4 billion of goods a year from 1,500 suppliers. It's hedging wheat purchases, much the way airlines purchase fuel. An automated ordering system will eventually replenish a restaurant based on electronic-tagged inventory and guest-traffic forecasts.
在顧客的需求預測上，使用自家研發的軟體 Guest Forecasting 以精準預估，可以降低人力和食物成本
Patti Reilly White, 53, chief information officer, leads the 170-person team at Darden that introduces order and predictability to this volatile business.
On a Thursday night in April, Erin Harvell, the culinary manager at the Olive Garden in Wayne, New Jersey, reviews the week's forecasts in a tiny office off the kitchen. They're within 1% to 4% of the actual turnout. The biggest gap -- 630 guests instead of 660 -- was on a rainy night. Guest Forecasting spells out the appropriate staffing and food preparation -- how many fettuccine Alfredo orders to expect, how much sauce to make in the morning. Over the past two years, Darden has reduced unplanned hours by more than 40% and trimmed excess food costs by 10%.
由於大部份的餐廳不接受訂位 (1)，所以分享該地區的餐廳資訊，以便告知排隊的顧客到其他分店用餐
This summer, she's launching another project to share wait times across restaurants so that a hostess can steer customers to nearby Darden establishments that aren't as busy. The next logical step, White says, would be to give customers online access to that information.
在美國，通常是點個人套餐，然後幾乎一起出菜 (2)。在內部流程管理上，採用 Meal Pacing 以達到此目標
In the kitchen, cooks are hustling, directed by a program called Meal Pacing that White's team introduced across the company two years ago. Traditionally, an expediter would try to ensure that meals for a given table were ready at the same time so the shrimp entrée didn't sit at the window getting cold while the 14-ounce steak was still on the grill. Meal Pacing displays the optimal work flow for each party on eight screens in the kitchen and monitors each station's progress, with color-coded warnings when one falls behind. The screens also show if the staff is meeting Darden's one-minute rule: Food should arrive at the table within one minute of being ready.
也使用數字管理食材
Leftover ingredients are refrigerated in day-stamped plastic bags, and anyone using an outdated item is fired on the spot.
在 CEO 的主導下，子集團間相互學習，以達成綜效
Now Otis is pushing a new tactic: no-holds-barred sharing of information between brands.
On a Tuesday morning in April, the presidents of three of the largest restaurant chains in the country slip into an unmarked white van in Orlando, Florida, and embark on an unprecedented mission -- sharing their latest trade secrets.
At the last stop on the morning tour, the presidents of Olive Garden, Red Lobster, and LongHorn do what you expect restaurant executives to do: chow down. Over steaks and salads at LongHorn, they talk shop at a back table in the dining room, dissecting things customers don't notice. Red Lobster's faux-wood floor tile, which lasts longer than real wood and is less slippery. Olive Garden's stone exterior, which requires less upkeep than painted wood. LongHorn's layout of food-prep and storage spaces, a small improvement that saves valuable time.
(1) 接受訂位的優點很多，但是文章中卻沒有說明不接受訂位的原因。
(2) 根據台灣的用餐經驗，點個人套餐時，常常發生其中幾個人已經吃完，卻還是有人的餐點還沒有到。點中式合菜，前一道菜已經吃完，下一道菜卻等很久。
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