8/19/2012

作業管理有趣的論文:九種可能

這是 Prof. Cachon 當選 INFORMS MSOM Fellow 的演講 (註 1)說明何謂有影響力的 (Impact) 論文
Impact = Interesting * Important
什麼是重要的 (Important) 論文?有用的 (useful) 結果,例如產生了更多的研究或是解決社會的問題 (註 2)。

什麼是有趣的 (Interesting) 論文?令人意想不到的結果。作者使用論文說明了九種可能

  1. What Was Thought to Be Exogenous Is Really Endogenous 
  2. What Was Thought to Be Complex Is Really Simple
  3. What Was Thought to Be Simple Is Really Complex 
  4. What Was Expected to Be a Small Effect Is Really a Large Effect 
  5. What Was Thought to Be a Large Effect Is Really a Small Effect
  6. What Was Thought to Be a Large Effect Is Really Much Larger
  7. What Was Thought to Be Easy Is Really Hard
  8. What Was Assumed to Not Be a Problem Is Really a Problem
  9. What Should Improve Performance Really Harms Performance

在 What Was Expected to Be a Small Effect Is Really a Large Effect 中作者舉了一個不屬於作業管理的例子 (註 3)研究使用 RFID 標籤 (類似臺灣的 eTag) 快速通過收費站所降低廢氣的影響有驚人的發現
One could easily assume (as I would) that this effect, if it exists, would be too small to measure, but they find a substantial effect: premature births decreased by 10.8% and low-weight births decreased by 11.8%.
作者使用如此有趣的方式來看待研究,令人讚嘆。其教學和研究能力一樣傑出,令人敬佩。

(註 1) Cachon, G. 2012. What is interesting in operations management?, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management. 14(2). 166-169. (in pdf)
(註 2) 作者沒有舉例說明一種可能是 Management Science 所列舉的 50 Most Influential Papers (1954-2004)
(註 3) Currie, J., R. Walker. 2011. Traffic congestion and infant health: Evidence from E-ZPass. Amer. Econom. J.: Appl. Econom. 3(1) 65–90.

7/29/2012

邁向頂尖之路:哈佛商學院的人生習題

成長於英國和畢業於牛津大學的記者,前往哈佛商學院完成 MBA學位後,寫下的書 

第一個重點是個案教學法,透過一年級的十門必修課和二年級的選修課,剖析如何分析和處理不確定的商業決策 (1)。

第二個則是許多的觀察和省思,包括 (哈佛) 商學院的教育、工作和家庭、資本主義、生命的價值、大企業不為人知的面向等等。

(1) Premier Case Collection 列了 450 個最熱門的個案。

7/04/2012

Marx 或 Smith 是對的?

女兒學校的國二社會科 (social studies) 期中考考題 (1),本身是博士的美國老師出了八題,女兒選擇回答的問題是

Does what's happening in the world today seem to suggest Marx was right or Smith? (2) 

根據老師上課的補充資料,女兒的 (原始) 回答如下

Marx and Smith have two different alternative views of society and government. Marx believes in that society will eventually develop into communism, while Smith believes in a capitalism society. They both are connect on some part of history. Countries such as Russia and China did become communist, but are now receding back to the right. Most countries are moving to the right in history.

Take China as an example. It is today a socialist country. The KMT used to have an industrialized republic country but the workers revolted. Next, this party rise up and ruled China as communism. Up till this point, it fits Marx's view of history. Since then, people have become rich with its own business, so this is actually Smith's view of history. Still, the Chinese government today owns quite a few businesses. China did fit Marx's view of history but have made a turning point to the right and become a socialist country. If China keeps on moving, it will arrive to a capitalist country. 

A different example is England, a capitalist country. England first industrialized then became a free market country. In England "greed is good", the market decides the price of goods and who to survive. This is Smith’s view of society which is related to nature selection. In England, the workers never revolted and remains a free market up till today. England's case is naturally similar to a lot of countries such as US, Germany and France. Also a capitalist country has no government involving in it. 

Lastly, a communist country is impossible while a total free market is also impossible. Marx view the final stage of communism as no government. This is impossible since people can't live equally with no government at all. Smith's view is also impossible since the government will always be involved. In America, the government bailed out the banks. That is involvement. While in almost all the countries, the government will own few large companies. A total free market and a total communism is impossible, but the world today seems to lean more over to Smith's side. 

In conclusion, history have evolved both ways, but every country that has reach Marx's view of communism will eventually recede right to Smith's view. Most countries in the world today are capitalist economy will little government involvement. This is a mix of two but more emphasis of Smith's view. The justified answer is that history lies more to Smith's view compared to Marx since every communist country will eventually fall. The economy in the world today is mostly Smith's view since government usually owns a few businesses only.

(1) 課本 B.J. Armento, etc., Across the Centuries, Houghton Mifflin, 2003, 558 pages.

(2) Karl Marx (卡爾馬克思) 和 Adam Smith (亞當史密斯)

6/18/2012

企業如何達成分析決策的方法:DELTA

本書 (1) 延續前一本書 Competing on Analytics,說明如何達成該目標的五個步驟,分別為

Data: The prerequisite for everthing analytical 
Enterprise: Integrting across organizational silos 
Leadership: The deciding DELTA factor
Targets: Picking your spots for analytics
Analysis: Managing Scarce and valuable talent

第一章根據 Competing on Analytics 中的架構,將企業使用分析能力的狀況分成五個階層,分別為

Analytically impaired
Localized analytics
Analytical aspirations
Analytical companies
Analytical competitors

附錄中的 2 頁表格針對如何進階到高一階層的工作,分別說明 DELTA 中必須準備的事項。

書的第二部份則是說明如何維持該狀態,分別為

Embed analytics in business processes
Build an analytical culture
Review your business comprehensively
Meeting challenges along the way
Toward more analytical decisions and better results

達成的關鍵?

The key challenges are no longer technological or analytical; they have more to do with simply making managers familiar with the concepts and the process. (2) 

(1) T.H. Davenport, J.G. Harris, and R. Morison, Analytics at Work: Smarter Decisions, Better Results, Harvard Business Press, 2010.

(2) T.H. Davenport, How to Design Smart Business Experiment, Harvard Business Review, 2009.

6/12/2012

餐廳 1010 湘的服務系統

天下雜誌報導瓦城泰統的內部餐點管理 (1),可惜我們無從接觸;不過,其服務系統有很大的改善空間。 

我們用餐的地點是新光三越西門店 (2),四個人點四道菜,1500 元左右 (3)。

首先,其位置的安排太近,所以桌距小。不知道是不是這個因素,導致服務生從我們的左邊上菜。根據打工學生的描述,這並不是標準的作法。況且,餐桌旁的走廊一直有服務生站著,所以應該有時間從正確的位置送菜。


第一道的青菜很快就到了,但是第二道卻等很久,只好玩起假裝夾菜的遊戲。中餐要配飯,所以時間間隔很重要。正如 Bill Darden 所說的 "not everybody's a gourmet, but everybody can tell time."。解決的方法之一 (Meal Pacing) 見此 (4)。

第三道上菜時,太太正在夾菜,服務生沒有任何的表示,例如等一下或者說對不起,就直接從手的上方放下菜來。

(1) 2011-11 天下雜誌 484期,科技業寒冬 賣漢堡比賣電腦賺,『以瓦城泰統旗下餐廳為例,流程、管理已經落實到每個環節,可以快速複製、成長。辣炒牛肉的牛小排要剁多細、一道孜然排骨要透過 100 多道標準化程序,讓每位廚師都烹調出同一味。瓦城泰統董事長徐承義說,公司早期開始就詳細規範,訂定 KPI,21 年後終於可以快速複製菜色、有展店的爆發力。』

(2) 我對美食沒有研究,因此只將食物分成三等級 -- 好吃、普通、不好吃。1010 湘屬於好吃。

(3) 我們吃得少,到王品集團的陶板屋或原燒也是差不多這個金額。但是,王品集團都沒有看到這些問題。另外,根據在百貨公司設櫃的親戚說明,百貨公司會抽取 3 成營業額當管理費;王品集團則是租店,連鎖店也多;所以兩者成本不太一樣。 

(4) 該文章並沒有說明其詳細的內容。不過,基本的問題是在眾多的限制下 (例如先到先服務、出菜間隔),決定眾多訂單的順序,以最小化顧客的平均等待時間;屬於生管的多機排程問題,在製造業有許多的類似應用,學術界也有很多的討論和研究。瓦城泰統已經有流程管理,所以可以得知每一道菜的準備和料理時間;用餐的尖峰時間,廚房非常繁忙,所以應由資訊系統 (中的演算法) 來決定準備的順序與間隔。