作業管理有趣的論文：九種可能

這是 Prof. Cachon 當選 INFORMS MSOM Fellow 的演講 (註 1)，說明何謂有影響力的 (Impact) 論文：

Impact = Interesting * Important

什麼是重要的 (Important) 論文？有用的 (useful) 結果，例如產生了更多的研究或是解決社會的問題 (註 2)。

什麼是有趣的 (Interesting) 論文？令人意想不到的結果。作者使用論文說明了九種可能

1. What Was Thought to Be Exogenous Is Really Endogenous 
2. What Was Thought to Be Complex Is Really Simple
3. What Was Thought to Be Simple Is Really Complex 
4. What Was Expected to Be a Small Effect Is Really a Large Effect 
5. What Was Thought to Be a Large Effect Is Really a Small Effect
6. What Was Thought to Be a Large Effect Is Really Much Larger
7. What Was Thought to Be Easy Is Really Hard
8. What Was Assumed to Not Be a Problem Is Really a Problem
9. What Should Improve Performance Really Harms Performance

在 What Was Expected to Be a Small Effect Is Really a Large Effect 中，作者舉了一個不屬於作業管理的例子 (註 3)，研究使用 RFID 標籤 (類似臺灣的 eTag) 快速通過收費站所降低廢氣的影響，有驚人的發現

One could easily assume (as I would) that this effect, if it exists, would be too small to measure, but they find a substantial effect: premature births decreased by 10.8% and low-weight births decreased by 11.8%.

作者使用如此有趣的方式來看待研究，令人讚嘆。其教學和研究能力一樣傑出，令人敬佩。

(註 1) Cachon, G. 2012. What is interesting in operations management?, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management. 14(2). 166-169. (in pdf)
(註 2) 作者沒有舉例說明。一種可能是 Management Science 所列舉的 50 Most Influential Papers (1954-2004)。
(註 3) Currie, J., R. Walker. 2011. Traffic congestion and infant health: Evidence from E-ZPass. Amer. Econom. J.: Appl. Econom. 3(1) 65–90.