深切期許
2012 年部份內容 (註 1)
And what of the world you are entering? There are big communities out there in which you will have roles, and, therefore, responsibilities. We are a global university, and each of you has a nation to which you now have an opportunity to contribute. Problems abound all around the world, and choices of direction are confronting every nation. Europe is debating austerity versus growth. In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, Middle Eastern and North African countries are testing whether democracy can thrive. China is struggling to find a way to distribute the fruits of increased prosperity more equitably, and to diminish the adverse environmental impact of rapid growth. The argument I wish to advance now applies equally to those of you with responsibilities as citizens of countries around the world, but I will focus on the United States, where all of you have chosen to attend school.
3/25/2013
耶魯大學 (Yale University) 校長 Richard C. Levin 的迎新演講
大學生活的安排與大學教育
2011 年部份內容 (註 1)
We entered 2009 full of hope that the world's nations could agree to save the planet from the scourge of global warming. But the U.S. Congress deadlocked in a struggle dominated by the parochial interests of various industries and regions and failed to act. Then, in Copenhagen, efforts to reach a global agreement were foiled when neither the United States nor the developing nations were willing to compromise for the good of all, and only the Europeans saw the big picture. ...
I am going to make the audacious claim that David's Yale education has had a lot to do with his ability to see the big picture. He experienced, just as you will over the next four years, exposure to a variety of disciplines — in his case, mathematics, economics, politics, and history, as well as physics and art history. This broad education has allowed him to look beyond the small-mindedness of what politicians say to interpret the larger trends driving the economy and society. He also learned to write clearly, analytically, and forcefully. He mastered this essential tool not only through his English courses but also through his principal extracurricular activity as a reporter for and subsequently as editor of the Yale Daily News (註 2).
David Leonhardt is but one of many visible examples of the profound way in which the liberal arts education you are about to experience can help you to develop the capacity to see the big picture. By sampling courses across a wide range of disciplines, you will learn to see problems from multiple perspectives. And by learning to think critically and analytically, you will become disinclined to accept simplified slogans as truth, more able to see subtle interconnections, more capable of forging solutions that embrace complexity without being overwhelmed by it. No matter what subjects you choose to pursue in depth,you will be required in your first two years to develop some breadth, and you will be challenged to think for yourselves — independently and analytically. In short, you will equip yourselves, in the words of Yale President Jeremiah Day, writing in 1828, with both the "discipline" and the "furniture" of the mind, rendering you capable of distinguishing clear and convincing arguments from doctrinaire assertions and unexamined prejudices.You will learn how to see the forest for the trees. ...
These stories inspire us with the achievements of those who started here just like you, with great potential, curiosity, open-mindedness, and a desire to make a difference in the world. The extraordinary resources of Yale College will give you the opportunity to realize that potential, to exercise that curiosity, to expand that mind beyond anything you can possibly now imagine, and to fulfill that desire to make a difference. If you stretch to your limits, and take courses and engage in extracurricular activities that broaden and challenge you, then you, too, will develop the capacity to see the big picture. We are counting on you. You are setting off on a grand adventure. Make the most of it!
2012 年部份內容 (註 3)
What is remarkable about studying in Yale College is that you will have direct access to the scholars I have mentioned, among many others. Distinguished as they are in research, they are also committed to teaching. You will take their courses, participate in their seminars, and have the opportunity to work as their research assistants or do independent research under their supervision. Most of the projects I just described involved students in some capacity, but here are a few more in which the role of undergraduates is central:
Consider, for example, Professor Scott Strobel’s course in which undergraduates travel over spring break to a tropical rain forest to gather endophytes, microorganisms that are found in abundance on plants. The students then return to Yale, where they work for the balance of the spring semester and throughout the summer to characterize the organisms that they have found and discover their properties. On recent rain forest expeditions, students have found several organisms that effectively degrade plastic. One in particular is capable of breaking down polyurethane in the absence of oxygen, holding promise for practical use in the biodegradation of buried trash. ...
Let me go one step further. If you want to get the most from your Yale education, be adventurous. Do not content yourself with a familiar path. As you choose your courses, try something different—an expository or creative writing class, statistics instead of more calculus, or a new language, even as you pursue further study of one you already know. Sign up for courses and projects that will challenge you. You may never again have so much opportunity to explore new ideas, to test out new directions, to pursue different routes to discovering your true passion. Stretch yourself.
更多的演講內容
(註 1) Richard C. Levin, Freshman Address: Seeing the Big Picture, August 26, 2011
(註 2) Distributional Requirements：不論主修為何，該校大學部的學生都必須修過以下課程才能畢業，2 門人文和藝術、2 門科學、2 門社會科學、1 門外國語文、2 門計量分析、2 門寫作。
(註 3) Richard C. Levin, Freshman Address: Undergraduate education and the research university, August 25, 2012
2011 年部份內容 (註 1)
We entered 2009 full of hope that the world's nations could agree to save the planet from the scourge of global warming. But the U.S. Congress deadlocked in a struggle dominated by the parochial interests of various industries and regions and failed to act. Then, in Copenhagen, efforts to reach a global agreement were foiled when neither the United States nor the developing nations were willing to compromise for the good of all, and only the Europeans saw the big picture. ...
I am going to make the audacious claim that David's Yale education has had a lot to do with his ability to see the big picture. He experienced, just as you will over the next four years, exposure to a variety of disciplines — in his case, mathematics, economics, politics, and history, as well as physics and art history. This broad education has allowed him to look beyond the small-mindedness of what politicians say to interpret the larger trends driving the economy and society. He also learned to write clearly, analytically, and forcefully. He mastered this essential tool not only through his English courses but also through his principal extracurricular activity as a reporter for and subsequently as editor of the Yale Daily News (註 2).
David Leonhardt is but one of many visible examples of the profound way in which the liberal arts education you are about to experience can help you to develop the capacity to see the big picture. By sampling courses across a wide range of disciplines, you will learn to see problems from multiple perspectives. And by learning to think critically and analytically, you will become disinclined to accept simplified slogans as truth, more able to see subtle interconnections, more capable of forging solutions that embrace complexity without being overwhelmed by it. No matter what subjects you choose to pursue in depth,you will be required in your first two years to develop some breadth, and you will be challenged to think for yourselves — independently and analytically. In short, you will equip yourselves, in the words of Yale President Jeremiah Day, writing in 1828, with both the "discipline" and the "furniture" of the mind, rendering you capable of distinguishing clear and convincing arguments from doctrinaire assertions and unexamined prejudices.You will learn how to see the forest for the trees. ...
These stories inspire us with the achievements of those who started here just like you, with great potential, curiosity, open-mindedness, and a desire to make a difference in the world. The extraordinary resources of Yale College will give you the opportunity to realize that potential, to exercise that curiosity, to expand that mind beyond anything you can possibly now imagine, and to fulfill that desire to make a difference. If you stretch to your limits, and take courses and engage in extracurricular activities that broaden and challenge you, then you, too, will develop the capacity to see the big picture. We are counting on you. You are setting off on a grand adventure. Make the most of it!
2012 年部份內容 (註 3)
What is remarkable about studying in Yale College is that you will have direct access to the scholars I have mentioned, among many others. Distinguished as they are in research, they are also committed to teaching. You will take their courses, participate in their seminars, and have the opportunity to work as their research assistants or do independent research under their supervision. Most of the projects I just described involved students in some capacity, but here are a few more in which the role of undergraduates is central:
Consider, for example, Professor Scott Strobel’s course in which undergraduates travel over spring break to a tropical rain forest to gather endophytes, microorganisms that are found in abundance on plants. The students then return to Yale, where they work for the balance of the spring semester and throughout the summer to characterize the organisms that they have found and discover their properties. On recent rain forest expeditions, students have found several organisms that effectively degrade plastic. One in particular is capable of breaking down polyurethane in the absence of oxygen, holding promise for practical use in the biodegradation of buried trash. ...
Let me go one step further. If you want to get the most from your Yale education, be adventurous. Do not content yourself with a familiar path. As you choose your courses, try something different—an expository or creative writing class, statistics instead of more calculus, or a new language, even as you pursue further study of one you already know. Sign up for courses and projects that will challenge you. You may never again have so much opportunity to explore new ideas, to test out new directions, to pursue different routes to discovering your true passion. Stretch yourself.
更多的演講內容
(註 1) Richard C. Levin, Freshman Address: Seeing the Big Picture, August 26, 2011
(註 2) Distributional Requirements：不論主修為何，該校大學部的學生都必須修過以下課程才能畢業，2 門人文和藝術、2 門科學、2 門社會科學、1 門外國語文、2 門計量分析、2 門寫作。
(註 3) Richard C. Levin, Freshman Address: Undergraduate education and the research university, August 25, 2012
3/24/2013
增進惠普 (HP) 線上購物的營收：複雜的分析學應用
原由 (註 1)
"Hewlett Packard (HP) entered the online consumer sales business with its launch of HPDirect.com, a portal that allows consumers to purchase HP products (e.g., desktop and notebook computers, printers, accessories, supplies) online. This paper describes operations research solutions to a variety of problems in the e-commerce value chain. HP’s objective was to use these solutions to grow its share in the online sales market."
三大步驟，每個大步驟又分為幾個步驟
"First, we identify and quantify the impact of key drivers of online traffic to enhance our market planning and budget allocation process.
Next, we apply Bayesian modeling and Markov chain methods to predict which customers are most likely to buy which product, and when and through which marketing channel they are likely to make a purchase.
Finally, we use a hybrid forecasting approach combining time-series and regression modeling to predict customer orders for optimizing warehouse inventory holding and ensuring timely fulfillment of customer orders."
結果
"Since 2009, the integration of these solutions into HP’s marketing planning and warehouse operations processes has helped to generate an additional $117 million in revenue for HPDirect.com."
此文再一次說明，通常需要多門學科以解決問題，例如文中提及的統計、作業研究、隨機過程的馬可夫鏈 (Markov chain)、資料探勘 (data mining) 等等 (註 2)。
有趣的是前面 7 位作者是位於印度的 Hewlett Packard Global Analytics 員工，只有一位在美國念過碩士。
當然，『惠普（HP）出售個人電腦與印表機事業部門（PPS）的傳聞再起，...， 昨（1）日外電傳出惠普正評估出售未達到業績的部門，外界猜測 PPS 部門被出售的機會最高。』(註 3) 則是受整個產業的影響，和本文無關。
(註 1) Rohit Tandon, Arnab Chakraborty, Girish Srinivasan, Manav Shroff, Ahmar Abdullah, Bharathan Shamasundar, Ritwik Sinha, Suresh Subramanian, Dave Hill, and Prasanna Dhore, Hewlett Packard: Delivering Profitable Growth for HPDirect.com Using Operations Research, Interfaces, January/February 2013, 43:48-61. (www)
(註 2) 全是資管系的必選修，我的管理數學課有教一下馬可夫鏈。
(註 3) 謝艾莉報導，惠普PC部門喊賣 代工廠震撼，經濟日報，2013.01.02
"Hewlett Packard (HP) entered the online consumer sales business with its launch of HPDirect.com, a portal that allows consumers to purchase HP products (e.g., desktop and notebook computers, printers, accessories, supplies) online. This paper describes operations research solutions to a variety of problems in the e-commerce value chain. HP’s objective was to use these solutions to grow its share in the online sales market."
三大步驟，每個大步驟又分為幾個步驟
"First, we identify and quantify the impact of key drivers of online traffic to enhance our market planning and budget allocation process.
Next, we apply Bayesian modeling and Markov chain methods to predict which customers are most likely to buy which product, and when and through which marketing channel they are likely to make a purchase.
Finally, we use a hybrid forecasting approach combining time-series and regression modeling to predict customer orders for optimizing warehouse inventory holding and ensuring timely fulfillment of customer orders."
結果
"Since 2009, the integration of these solutions into HP’s marketing planning and warehouse operations processes has helped to generate an additional $117 million in revenue for HPDirect.com."
此文再一次說明，通常需要多門學科以解決問題，例如文中提及的統計、作業研究、隨機過程的馬可夫鏈 (Markov chain)、資料探勘 (data mining) 等等 (註 2)。
有趣的是前面 7 位作者是位於印度的 Hewlett Packard Global Analytics 員工，只有一位在美國念過碩士。
當然，『惠普（HP）出售個人電腦與印表機事業部門（PPS）的傳聞再起，...， 昨（1）日外電傳出惠普正評估出售未達到業績的部門，外界猜測 PPS 部門被出售的機會最高。』(註 3) 則是受整個產業的影響，和本文無關。
(註 1) Rohit Tandon, Arnab Chakraborty, Girish Srinivasan, Manav Shroff, Ahmar Abdullah, Bharathan Shamasundar, Ritwik Sinha, Suresh Subramanian, Dave Hill, and Prasanna Dhore, Hewlett Packard: Delivering Profitable Growth for HPDirect.com Using Operations Research, Interfaces, January/February 2013, 43:48-61. (www)
(註 2) 全是資管系的必選修，我的管理數學課有教一下馬可夫鏈。
(註 3) 謝艾莉報導，惠普PC部門喊賣 代工廠震撼，經濟日報，2013.01.02
3/16/2013
大學生混文憑 才是浪費資源
聯合報╱尹蓉先／大學法律系副教授（台北市）2013.03.15
一名博士生放棄月薪五萬多元的助教工作，回故鄉賣雞排，引起社會討論；鴻海董事長郭台銘認為，這是浪費教育資源，但真正巨量浪費教育資源的是—政府。
政府廣設大學之後，錄取率已超過百分之百，再怎麼不用功不念書的人都可以進大學；於是校園裡有很多對讀書這件事，既沒有能力又沒有興趣的年輕人；沒有能力沒有興趣不說，連付出一點點努力也不肯，可還是堅持要那張文憑。
我最近有機會，分別觀察國立和私立大學學生上課的情形，其實兩者相去不遠，吃飯、聊天、看報、看小說、聽音樂、發呆、塗鴉、打牌、打電動、打毛衣、接吻，做什麼的都有，就是少有認真聽課的。
唯二不同：國立大學學生打電腦、玩手機更加方便，因為桌上就有插座，還有這些學生基本上不吵；私校最恐怖的是學生上課聊天，說話聲音之大，老師拿著麥克風也壓不過；一半以上的學生桌上沒有書、沒有紙、沒有筆，只有一杯飲料和一支手機。
老師不管嗎？
有一回，我和一群學生一同等紅燈過馬路，前面一位同學正跟她的朋友訴苦：「○○老師最討厭了，每次上課講著講著就冷不防問一個問題，害我們都不能專心做自己的事情！」聽得我暗自驚心，立刻深入檢討，感到非常抱歉，在下正是那種令人討厭上課會打擾同學的老師。
為讓學生願意聽課，教育部花大筆銀子，請老師研究教學創新，授課活潑有趣，老師們挖空心思想方設法讓學生用心，放影片、講笑話、演戲、分組競賽，就差倒立、翻筋斗了，但老實說，成效有限。
念書本來就是苦事，所以我們常說某某學術有成的人「苦讀出身」，現在大學裡的多數學生到學校目的，根本不在求學，只求一張文憑，除了學費之外，不願再付任何代價，若不是老師機車要點名，連教室也不願進。
民國一○二年整體高教經費約二千億，從民國八十五年廣設大學到現在，在大學裡糊塗鬼混荒唐度日的學子，不止百分之五十。保守估計糟蹋的高教資源，不會比三個核電廠還少，這是全國納稅義務人的血汗錢，就為一張無用的文憑。
除了這以兆計算的國家資源浪費外，更令人痛心惋惜的，是這些年輕學子在大學浪費掉的，是再也喚不回的青春美好時光。
當全國上下、藍綠朝野忙著處理核四問題，卻沒人注意廣設大學這更加嚴重錯誤的教育政策，正在繼續不斷巨量燒錢。
%%%
感想：尹教授說出了一般的常態。
我任教於私立大學，上的課程大都是數學課，講義以英文為主。上我課程的學生中，認真聽課的不少。發呆或打盹的當然有，不過沒有人 (敢？) 上課聊天。學生桌上大多有書或講義。針對我的提問，同學也會思考或回答岀正確的答案。不過，我的選修課很難開成。
當然，學校有些老師採取放任的態度，一堆人趴睡也不管。
『糊塗鬼混荒唐度日的學子』當然很多。但是，敝校學生每年每人拿政府不到一萬元的 (*) 補助，他們對不起的是自己和殷殷期盼的父母親。真正該使用者付費的是不認真念書、甚至因此延畢的頂大學生們；這些學生每年每人拿政府 20 到 30 萬元不等的補助。
作者所說的這些大學生就是目前討論的『學用落差』的一群人。不過，這些大學生在學校根本沒有學到東西，何來落差之說？
(*) 一萬元包括圖書設備。嚴格來說，買進來的圖書變藏書，可以使用多年，沒有立即浪費的問題。學校圖書館也很努力地辦活動，吸引同學去借書。
一名博士生放棄月薪五萬多元的助教工作，回故鄉賣雞排，引起社會討論；鴻海董事長郭台銘認為，這是浪費教育資源，但真正巨量浪費教育資源的是—政府。
政府廣設大學之後，錄取率已超過百分之百，再怎麼不用功不念書的人都可以進大學；於是校園裡有很多對讀書這件事，既沒有能力又沒有興趣的年輕人；沒有能力沒有興趣不說，連付出一點點努力也不肯，可還是堅持要那張文憑。
我最近有機會，分別觀察國立和私立大學學生上課的情形，其實兩者相去不遠，吃飯、聊天、看報、看小說、聽音樂、發呆、塗鴉、打牌、打電動、打毛衣、接吻，做什麼的都有，就是少有認真聽課的。
唯二不同：國立大學學生打電腦、玩手機更加方便，因為桌上就有插座，還有這些學生基本上不吵；私校最恐怖的是學生上課聊天，說話聲音之大，老師拿著麥克風也壓不過；一半以上的學生桌上沒有書、沒有紙、沒有筆，只有一杯飲料和一支手機。
老師不管嗎？
有一回，我和一群學生一同等紅燈過馬路，前面一位同學正跟她的朋友訴苦：「○○老師最討厭了，每次上課講著講著就冷不防問一個問題，害我們都不能專心做自己的事情！」聽得我暗自驚心，立刻深入檢討，感到非常抱歉，在下正是那種令人討厭上課會打擾同學的老師。
為讓學生願意聽課，教育部花大筆銀子，請老師研究教學創新，授課活潑有趣，老師們挖空心思想方設法讓學生用心，放影片、講笑話、演戲、分組競賽，就差倒立、翻筋斗了，但老實說，成效有限。
念書本來就是苦事，所以我們常說某某學術有成的人「苦讀出身」，現在大學裡的多數學生到學校目的，根本不在求學，只求一張文憑，除了學費之外，不願再付任何代價，若不是老師機車要點名，連教室也不願進。
民國一○二年整體高教經費約二千億，從民國八十五年廣設大學到現在，在大學裡糊塗鬼混荒唐度日的學子，不止百分之五十。保守估計糟蹋的高教資源，不會比三個核電廠還少，這是全國納稅義務人的血汗錢，就為一張無用的文憑。
除了這以兆計算的國家資源浪費外，更令人痛心惋惜的，是這些年輕學子在大學浪費掉的，是再也喚不回的青春美好時光。
當全國上下、藍綠朝野忙著處理核四問題，卻沒人注意廣設大學這更加嚴重錯誤的教育政策，正在繼續不斷巨量燒錢。
%%%
感想：尹教授說出了一般的常態。
我任教於私立大學，上的課程大都是數學課，講義以英文為主。上我課程的學生中，認真聽課的不少。發呆或打盹的當然有，不過沒有人 (敢？) 上課聊天。學生桌上大多有書或講義。針對我的提問，同學也會思考或回答岀正確的答案。不過，我的選修課很難開成。
當然，學校有些老師採取放任的態度，一堆人趴睡也不管。
『糊塗鬼混荒唐度日的學子』當然很多。但是，敝校學生每年每人拿政府不到一萬元的 (*) 補助，他們對不起的是自己和殷殷期盼的父母親。真正該使用者付費的是不認真念書、甚至因此延畢的頂大學生們；這些學生每年每人拿政府 20 到 30 萬元不等的補助。
作者所說的這些大學生就是目前討論的『學用落差』的一群人。不過，這些大學生在學校根本沒有學到東西，何來落差之說？
(*) 一萬元包括圖書設備。嚴格來說，買進來的圖書變藏書，可以使用多年，沒有立即浪費的問題。學校圖書館也很努力地辦活動，吸引同學去借書。
3/15/2013
廣告分析學 2.0：量化的多通路廣告效益
課堂中考慮多通路廣告，其中假設通路間效果是相加的，以滿足使用線性規劃的假設 (1)。但是，實際的情況較複雜。
因為大量可供使用的資料，可以更精準地發揮行銷的功用。MarketShare 公司的執行長 (CEO) Wes Nichols 說明其使用 (2)：
第一是歸因 (attribution)，利用統計學的 simultaneous equations model，描述行銷活動間的交互作用，例如新電視廣告出現後，線上廣告增加的點閱率 (click through rate)。也可以得知某決策變數的彈性 (elasticity)，例如電視廣告對銷售的影響。
第二步驟是最佳化 (optimization)，可以做情境分析 (scenario analysis)，例如移動 15% 的電視廣告預算到線上廣告對收入的影響，或者汽油漲價 5%、電視和線上廣告有 $300 折扣對丹佛市 (Denver) 中型敞蓬運貨小客車 (pickup truck) 銷售量的影響？
所謂的最佳化是考慮預算和 simultaneous equations model 等限制下，決定多種廣告方式的預算，以最大化收入。文中的描述比較接近最佳化之後的零敏度分析 (sensitivity analysis)。
最後是分配 (allocation)，某大軟體公司使用數百個變數以決定其對利潤的影響，以分鐘為單位，決定廣告預算的分配，過去三年的投資報酬率 (ROI) 幾乎成長一倍。
在預算不變的情況下，福特汽車 (Ford) 增加了數千萬美元的收入，藝電 (Electronic Arts) 則是增加了新版戰地風雲 3 (Battlefield 3) 23% 的銷售量。
(1) F.S. Hillier and M.S. Hillier, Introduction to Management Science: A Modeling and Case Studies Approach with Spreadsheets, McGraw-Hill, 4th edition, 2011, chapter 3
(2) Wes Nichols, Advertising Analytics 2.0, Harvard Business Review, March 2013, Vol. 91, Issue 3, p 60-68
因為大量可供使用的資料，可以更精準地發揮行銷的功用。MarketShare 公司的執行長 (CEO) Wes Nichols 說明其使用 (2)：
第一是歸因 (attribution)，利用統計學的 simultaneous equations model，描述行銷活動間的交互作用，例如新電視廣告出現後，線上廣告增加的點閱率 (click through rate)。也可以得知某決策變數的彈性 (elasticity)，例如電視廣告對銷售的影響。
第二步驟是最佳化 (optimization)，可以做情境分析 (scenario analysis)，例如移動 15% 的電視廣告預算到線上廣告對收入的影響，或者汽油漲價 5%、電視和線上廣告有 $300 折扣對丹佛市 (Denver) 中型敞蓬運貨小客車 (pickup truck) 銷售量的影響？
所謂的最佳化是考慮預算和 simultaneous equations model 等限制下，決定多種廣告方式的預算，以最大化收入。文中的描述比較接近最佳化之後的零敏度分析 (sensitivity analysis)。
最後是分配 (allocation)，某大軟體公司使用數百個變數以決定其對利潤的影響，以分鐘為單位，決定廣告預算的分配，過去三年的投資報酬率 (ROI) 幾乎成長一倍。
在預算不變的情況下，福特汽車 (Ford) 增加了數千萬美元的收入，藝電 (Electronic Arts) 則是增加了新版戰地風雲 3 (Battlefield 3) 23% 的銷售量。
(1) F.S. Hillier and M.S. Hillier, Introduction to Management Science: A Modeling and Case Studies Approach with Spreadsheets, McGraw-Hill, 4th edition, 2011, chapter 3
(2) Wes Nichols, Advertising Analytics 2.0, Harvard Business Review, March 2013, Vol. 91, Issue 3, p 60-68
3/10/2013
瑞商在台灣的師徒制：瑞健公司 (SHL Group) 的好榜樣
根據今周刊的報導 (1)
『四天當學徒、兩天上課，平均月領二十二Ｋ、四年後領大學文憑，外商瑞健公司提供高
職生另一個選擇，引進瑞士「師徒制」，滿足台灣的文憑主義，更解決產學斷層與企業人
才荒，為台灣技職教育闢出一條新路。
四天上班、兩天上課
全額補助學費還有薪水 四年後拿到學位
建立台灣產學合作新模式的瑞健公司，是一家不折不扣的外商，員工一千八百人，年營收
逾億元，董事長孫羅傑（Roger Samuelsson）是瑞典人，主要業務是生產中高階醫療器
材，如自動化注射器、筆型注射器，以及吸入器等產品。』
根據該公司網站的說明，孫羅傑也是公司創辦人 (2)。
聯合報的語音報導
『難得的是，四年培訓期完全不綁約。不擔心幫對手培養人才嗎？師徒制的推手、瑞健集
團總監費斯樂 （Ulrich Faessler）聽到記者的提問，露出驚訝的表情說，「即使我們培
養的人才離開了，他還是在這個社會流通，可以刺激產業一起進步和提升。」』
這些話和作法是否給台灣的老闆許多的啟發？
(1) 賴琬莉撰文，尋找解方 台灣首例「師徒制」 企業、學生雙贏 ，今周刊 845 期，
2013/2/27
(2) SHL (Scandinavian Health Ltd) is currently the world's largest privately-owned
designer, developer and manufacturer of advanced drug delivery systems. The
organization was established in 1989 by Swedish entrepreneurs Roger Samuelsson
and Martin Jelf with the goal of combining world-class manufacturing in Asia
with the strengths of Western Management practices.
『四天當學徒、兩天上課，平均月領二十二Ｋ、四年後領大學文憑，外商瑞健公司提供高
職生另一個選擇，引進瑞士「師徒制」，滿足台灣的文憑主義，更解決產學斷層與企業人
才荒，為台灣技職教育闢出一條新路。
四天上班、兩天上課
全額補助學費還有薪水 四年後拿到學位
建立台灣產學合作新模式的瑞健公司，是一家不折不扣的外商，員工一千八百人，年營收
逾億元，董事長孫羅傑（Roger Samuelsson）是瑞典人，主要業務是生產中高階醫療器
材，如自動化注射器、筆型注射器，以及吸入器等產品。』
根據該公司網站的說明，孫羅傑也是公司創辦人 (2)。
聯合報的語音報導
『難得的是，四年培訓期完全不綁約。不擔心幫對手培養人才嗎？師徒制的推手、瑞健集
團總監費斯樂 （Ulrich Faessler）聽到記者的提問，露出驚訝的表情說，「即使我們培
養的人才離開了，他還是在這個社會流通，可以刺激產業一起進步和提升。」』
這些話和作法是否給台灣的老闆許多的啟發？
(1) 賴琬莉撰文，尋找解方 台灣首例「師徒制」 企業、學生雙贏 ，今周刊 845 期，
2013/2/27
(2) SHL (Scandinavian Health Ltd) is currently the world's largest privately-owned
designer, developer and manufacturer of advanced drug delivery systems. The
organization was established in 1989 by Swedish entrepreneurs Roger Samuelsson
and Martin Jelf with the goal of combining world-class manufacturing in Asia
with the strengths of Western Management practices.
3/07/2013
TNT Express 國際快遞的供應鏈最佳化
2012 Edelman Award 第一名
考慮三個問題和其使用的作業研究模型 (1)
TNT Express Routing and Network Scheduling (TRANS): Network optimization
Tactical Planning in Pickup and Delivery (SHORTREC): Vehicle-routing problem
Supply Chain Optimization (DELTA Supply Chain): Mixed-integer programming
結果？ (2)
"As a result, it achieved over 200 million euros in cost savings from 2008–2011 and reduced CO2 emissions by 283 million kilograms."
(1) Hein Fleuren, Chris Goossens, Marco Hendriks, Marie-Christine Lombard, Ineke Meuffels, and John Poppelaars, Supply Chain–Wide Optimization at TNT Express, Interfaces, January/February 2013, 43:5-20
(2) Stephen C. Graves and R. John Milne, Introduction: 2012 Franz Edelman Award for Achievement in Operations Research and the Management Sciences, Interfaces, January/February 2013, 43:1-4 (in pdf)
考慮三個問題和其使用的作業研究模型 (1)
TNT Express Routing and Network Scheduling (TRANS): Network optimization
Tactical Planning in Pickup and Delivery (SHORTREC): Vehicle-routing problem
Supply Chain Optimization (DELTA Supply Chain): Mixed-integer programming
結果？ (2)
"As a result, it achieved over 200 million euros in cost savings from 2008–2011 and reduced CO2 emissions by 283 million kilograms."
(1) Hein Fleuren, Chris Goossens, Marco Hendriks, Marie-Christine Lombard, Ineke Meuffels, and John Poppelaars, Supply Chain–Wide Optimization at TNT Express, Interfaces, January/February 2013, 43:5-20
(2) Stephen C. Graves and R. John Milne, Introduction: 2012 Franz Edelman Award for Achievement in Operations Research and the Management Sciences, Interfaces, January/February 2013, 43:1-4 (in pdf)
線上廣告的呈現與否：統計和作業研究的問題
一般公司透過 Chitika 公司在出版商 (publisher) 的網頁上放行銷廣告，例如 (美國版的) Wall Street Journal 中右方的外部公司廣告；如果網頁瀏覽者點選該廣告，將付錢給 Chitika 和該出版商。
如果放較多的廣告可以增加收入，卻減少了頁面的吸引力 (註 1)，出版商因此面臨了兩難。為了解決此問題，Chitika 和三位教授合作 (註 2)，讓出版商可以指定點閱率 (click-through rate, CTR)(註 3)，以有效地應用有限的版面空間。
解決的方法可以分成兩步驟。首先，利用瀏覽者使用的作業系統、瀏覽的時間點、廣告的大小位置等五十幾個變數，估計瀏覽者點閱廣告的機率 (註 4)；使用卡方檢定 (chi-square test) 得知其點閱的機率是貝他分佈 (beta distribution) (註 5)。
有了這些資訊後，進行第二步驟決策的部份，也就是是否提供廣告讓瀏覽者看，以最大化收入，限制則是出版商訂定的最低點閱率。首先是設定臨界值 (threshold value) alpha，如果機率大於此臨界值，則提供廣告給瀏覽者看 (註 6)，反之不用。如果設定 alpha 為 0，點閱率可能無法滿足出版商的要求；設定 alpha 太高，因廣告變少可能導致收入減少。本文作者動態地調整 alpha 的數值，以滿足最低的點閱率。經過數學的分析，得知最佳解是貝他分佈在 [alpha 1] 間的期望值。作者也提供決策工具，說明點閱率和收入的關係以供出版商使用。
有此品質的保證，更多的出版商和 Chitika 簽約，因而增加每天三千美元的收入。
(註 1) 可以參考此例
(註 2) Radha Mookerjee, Subodha Kumar, and Vijay S. Mookerjee, To Show or Not Show: Using User Profiling to Manage Internet Advertisement Campaigns at Chitika, Interfaces, September/October, 2012, 42:449-464.
(註 3) 點閱率 = 廣告被點選的次數 / 廣告呈現的總數
(註 4) 使用線性迴歸和 logit 函數描述之
(註 5) 每家出版商的參數可能不一樣
(註 6) 瀏覽者不一定會點選，所以點閱率通常小於 1
如果放較多的廣告可以增加收入，卻減少了頁面的吸引力 (註 1)，出版商因此面臨了兩難。為了解決此問題，Chitika 和三位教授合作 (註 2)，讓出版商可以指定點閱率 (click-through rate, CTR)(註 3)，以有效地應用有限的版面空間。
解決的方法可以分成兩步驟。首先，利用瀏覽者使用的作業系統、瀏覽的時間點、廣告的大小位置等五十幾個變數，估計瀏覽者點閱廣告的機率 (註 4)；使用卡方檢定 (chi-square test) 得知其點閱的機率是貝他分佈 (beta distribution) (註 5)。
有了這些資訊後，進行第二步驟決策的部份，也就是是否提供廣告讓瀏覽者看，以最大化收入，限制則是出版商訂定的最低點閱率。首先是設定臨界值 (threshold value) alpha，如果機率大於此臨界值，則提供廣告給瀏覽者看 (註 6)，反之不用。如果設定 alpha 為 0，點閱率可能無法滿足出版商的要求；設定 alpha 太高，因廣告變少可能導致收入減少。本文作者動態地調整 alpha 的數值，以滿足最低的點閱率。經過數學的分析，得知最佳解是貝他分佈在 [alpha 1] 間的期望值。作者也提供決策工具，說明點閱率和收入的關係以供出版商使用。
有此品質的保證，更多的出版商和 Chitika 簽約，因而增加每天三千美元的收入。
(註 1) 可以參考此例
(註 2) Radha Mookerjee, Subodha Kumar, and Vijay S. Mookerjee, To Show or Not Show: Using User Profiling to Manage Internet Advertisement Campaigns at Chitika, Interfaces, September/October, 2012, 42:449-464.
(註 3) 點閱率 = 廣告被點選的次數 / 廣告呈現的總數
(註 4) 使用線性迴歸和 logit 函數描述之
(註 5) 每家出版商的參數可能不一樣
(註 6) 瀏覽者不一定會點選，所以點閱率通常小於 1
3/03/2013
冷氣促銷提早開跑
蘋果日報報導
『2/27 前在家樂福買指定家電滿 5000 送 500 家電現金折價券，而去年尾牙檔期買變頻冷氣送的折價券，即日起已可使用；在大潤發買指定機種最高也可現折 2000 元。特力屋除原廠好禮，還有加碼送，另會員原消費百元送 1 點，2/28~3/17 買變頻冷氣點數 10 倍送，1000 點回饋現金 1000 元，2/28 ~ 4/2 買冷氣滿 2 萬辦分期，指定銀行 6 期 0 利率再送 500 元禮券；愛買則要等到 3 月才有活動。網購業者 GOHAPPY 快樂購物網購 4/30 前買指定品牌如日立送保溫瓶等。』
暑假是安裝冷氣的旺季，但是，受限於有限的人力，顧客必須等待較久的時間。利用送禮或折扣 (差異定價 (differential pricing))，讓顧客提早安裝是改變尖峰需求的好方法；在我的課程營收管理中，則是使用主題樂園的例子說明其使用。
(1) 謝君怡報導，冷氣促銷提早開跑 變頻機種佔 8 成，蘋果日報，2013 年 02 月 25 日
『2/27 前在家樂福買指定家電滿 5000 送 500 家電現金折價券，而去年尾牙檔期買變頻冷氣送的折價券，即日起已可使用；在大潤發買指定機種最高也可現折 2000 元。特力屋除原廠好禮，還有加碼送，另會員原消費百元送 1 點，2/28~3/17 買變頻冷氣點數 10 倍送，1000 點回饋現金 1000 元，2/28 ~ 4/2 買冷氣滿 2 萬辦分期，指定銀行 6 期 0 利率再送 500 元禮券；愛買則要等到 3 月才有活動。網購業者 GOHAPPY 快樂購物網購 4/30 前買指定品牌如日立送保溫瓶等。』
暑假是安裝冷氣的旺季，但是，受限於有限的人力，顧客必須等待較久的時間。利用送禮或折扣 (差異定價 (differential pricing))，讓顧客提早安裝是改變尖峰需求的好方法；在我的課程營收管理中，則是使用主題樂園的例子說明其使用。
(1) 謝君怡報導，冷氣促銷提早開跑 變頻機種佔 8 成，蘋果日報，2013 年 02 月 25 日
3/02/2013
新車晚半年交車拖累納智捷年銷量
商業周刊報導 (尤子彥，納智捷產銷脫節 品牌路「打滑」！，第 1314 期，2013-01-28)
「這絕對是重傷害！」胡開昌表示，第三款 LUXGEN5 Sedan 早在二○一二年初台北新車大展亮相，原本預定四月即可交車，卻因完裝品質未能通過內部測試，尤其車載的宏達電手機通訊系統整合，反覆進行穩定性確認，造成上市日期一延再延，直到十月才進入大量交車階段，「很多車主實在等不及，原本接獲的兩千多張訂單，大半也都因此流失了。」
車用整合資訊平台可以參考此處網頁。整合的系統似乎比文章中描述的多很多。
「這絕對是重傷害！」胡開昌表示，第三款 LUXGEN5 Sedan 早在二○一二年初台北新車大展亮相，原本預定四月即可交車，卻因完裝品質未能通過內部測試，尤其車載的宏達電手機通訊系統整合，反覆進行穩定性確認，造成上市日期一延再延，直到十月才進入大量交車階段，「很多車主實在等不及，原本接獲的兩千多張訂單，大半也都因此流失了。」
車用整合資訊平台可以參考此處網頁。整合的系統似乎比文章中描述的多很多。
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