Daron Acemoglu is not having all this AI hype

Robin Wigglesworth, Daron Acemoglu is not having all this AI hype, Financial Times, May 28 2024. 

Who is Daron Acemoglu? 246,645 Citations so far!

Daron Acemoglu, The Simple Macroeconomics of AI, The National Bureau of Economic Research, Issue Date May 2024

I estimate that TFP (*) effects from AI advances within the next 10 years will be modest — an upper bound that does not take into account the distinction between hard and easy tasks would be about a 0.66% increase in total within 10 years, or about a 0.064% increase in annual TFP growth. When the presence of hard tasks among those that will be exposed to AI is recognized, this upper bound drops to about 0.53%. GDP effects will be somewhat larger than this because automation and task complementarities will also lead to greater investment. But my calculations suggest that the GDP boost within the next 10 years should also be modest, in the range of 0.93% − 1.16% over 10 years in total, provided that the investment increase resulting from AI is modest, and in the range of 1.4%−1.56% in total, if there is a large investment boom.

(*) TFP: total factor productivity